Pending home sales in the Seattle area plunged 15.6% year-over-year in July, making it the sharpest decline among all major U.S. metropolitan areas, according to a new Redfin report. The slump reflects a chilling effect from tech-sector layoffs and growing anxiety about AI-driven job displacement in the region's dominant industry.
Seattle's median home sale price sits at $809,479 — roughly double the national average of $408,795 — making the market especially vulnerable when high-earning tech workers pull back. Amazon started 2026 with 16,000 corporate job cuts on top of roughly 14,000 layoffs last fall. Microsoft cut about 15,000 jobs in two rounds during 2025 and another 4,800 last month.
"Seattle is a tech-driven market, and right now a lot of buyers are feeling cautious about layoffs, AI and job security," said Chase Costello, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area. "Tech workers aren't moving between companies — or moving into the area — as much as they used to, and that means fewer people are trading up into new homes."
Even workers who remain employed are increasingly hesitant to take on large mortgages amid broader economic uncertainty. The pullback extends beyond Seattle, with Houston (-14.3%) and Phoenix (-13.3%) also seeing steep declines, while markets less dependent on tech — such as West Palm Beach (+17.1%) and San Francisco (+8.5%), buoyed by AI boom spending — bucked the trend.
