A new working paper from economics researchers at Munich's CESifo institute has found "no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels" — directly contradicting an earlier Stanford study that suggested AI was beginning to erode entry-level employment.
The Stanford study, published the previous month, used payroll data from HR firm ADP to find that entry-level employment in "AI-impacted" occupations was lagging behind other fields. The CESifo researchers instead turned to detailed microdata from the US Census' Current Population Survey, which covers a broader cross-section of the economy.
Looking at unemployment trends among 22-to-25-year-old Bachelor's degree recipients from 2022 to 2026, the researchers found that the summer 2026 unemployment rate for recent graduates (7.3%) was well within the range seen in previous years (6.3% in 2022 to 7.8% in 2024). Statistical tests comparing recent graduates with non-college graduates and older college graduates found no significant trend differences.
The findings are particularly notable given the weight of dire predictions. Marc Andreessen said earlier this year that "AI literally until December was not actually good enough to do any of the jobs that they're actually cutting." BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned in March that "the speed at which AI is changing" could produce "the highest unemployment rate" among graduates "in years."
The researchers caution that current trends do not guarantee future performance, noting that "if the intensity of AI use in the workplace continues to increase, the graduating classes of 2027 and later might be more affected." But for now, the data tells a consistent story: summer 2026 was not unusually hard for new graduates.
