Researchers at the University of Oxford have created a new calculator that estimates a person's individual risk of developing serious muscle disorders while taking statins — cholesterol-lowering medications used to prevent heart attacks and strokes.
Published in The Lancet Digital Health, the research analyzed anonymized health records from more than 5.6 million people. More than 98% of statin-eligible people were at low predicted risk of serious muscle disorders over 10 years. Over 60% of eligible people were not taking statins, even though some faced high cardiovascular risk.
The model analyzes 22 routinely collected health factors: age, sex, ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, existing conditions, previous muscle problems, vitamin D deficiency, medication use, and statin prescription status. The team built the model using 1.7 million records and validated it with 3.9 million more.
"Serious muscle disorders are one of the most discussed concerns about statins, but the risk is very low for the vast majority," says Dr. Ting Cai, lead author. The calculator (STRATIFY-StatinMD) will be available through Oxford University Innovation.
